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Author(s): 

KANNAN R. | SANYAL S. | BHOI B.B.

Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2006
  • Volume: 

    27
  • Issue: 

    3
  • Pages: 

    57-86
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    1
  • Views: 

    147
  • Downloads: 

    0
Keywords: 
Abstract: 

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Journal: 

NAMEH-YE-MOFID

Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2008
  • Volume: 

    13
  • Issue: 

    2 (63 ECONOMICS)
  • Pages: 

    59-82
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    1
  • Views: 

    1992
  • Downloads: 

    0
Abstract: 

Monetary Policies are one of the important instruments of the economic demand management and –are much important in policy making decisions. In this direction, determination the rule of monetary policy making and discretion of expansionary and, contractionary monetary policies are also important for policy makers and economists.In this paper, in addition to analysis of Taylor monetary policy making Rule, has introduced new index for separating of monetary policy, monetary condition index. This index combination of variation of real interest rate and real exchange rate relative to base year and positive variations of this index, denote contractionary monetary policy and negative variations shows that monetary policy is expansionary. In this essay, monetary condition index has calculated using annual Iran economy time series data, from 1352-1385 and in according to it, accomplished expansionary and contractionary monetary policies has been separated.

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Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2012
  • Volume: 

    12
  • Issue: 

    1
  • Pages: 

    31-57
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    1897
  • Downloads: 

    0
Abstract: 

Monetary conditions index (MCI) is used as an intermediate target of monetary policy in many developed countries. More recently, monetary authorities in some developing countries have also attempted to use this operational target to determine the stance of monetary policy in their countries. The MCI is usually computed as a weighted sum of changes in interest rate and exchange rate. The use of interest rate in constructing MCI might not be appropriate in developing countries due to the lack of efficient financial markets in these countries. Some authors have emphasized on the role of credit channel in monetary transmission mechanism for developing countries. Using weighted sum of profit rate, exchange rate and banks credit, this paper constructs proper MCI for the Iranian economy. Aggregate demand and price equations are used to estimate the weights. Finally, the forecasting power of these indices using non-nested tests and root mean square errors is compared. The results show that the MCI augmented with banks credit has better predicting power than those without credit channel. Moreover, it is also revealed that real MCI, as an intermediate target, is preferred to nominal ones.

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Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2019
  • Volume: 

    6
  • Issue: 

    3
  • Pages: 

    23-48
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    731
  • Downloads: 

    0
Abstract: 

The purpose of this paper is to define and calculate Iran's monetary and financial sector resilience index. So, according to the existing resilience literature, and using the grounded theory (GT) approach, theoretical saturation was obtained with respect to the resilience components of the monetary and financial sector and Indicator factors were extracted using the bayesian model averaging approach. Five variables were identified in the presence of 22 variables, in the framework of the model's uncertainty and with an estimated three million and six hundred thousand regressions; which include the growth rate of government oil revenues, the fluctuation of the growth rate of liquidity, Risk index, the ratio of bank debt to the central bank to the monetary base and the ratio of government debt to the banking system to liquidity, as non-fragile variables, (this means that it retains its work as an effective factor in the resilience of the monetary and financial sector in the presence of other variables and have meaning). Which shows that because of the probability of a higher uptake, these variables should be considered more than other variables in assessing the effect of monetary and financial sector. The time series of the index of monetary and financial sector resilience is calculated based on the normalized variables of these variables for the period from 1976 to 2016.

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Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2016
  • Volume: 

    24
  • Issue: 

    78
  • Pages: 

    171-206
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    1545
  • Downloads: 

    0
Abstract: 

In this research, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model was designed to study the behavior of the central bank in financial instability condition with considering some facts observed in the economy of Iran. Then after optimization and obtaining first-order conditions of brokers using Uhlig method linear-logarithmic form of the equations was obtained. In the end, variables impulse response functions in against the technology shock, oil revenues shock, the monetary shock consumer spending and investment the government shock and stock price index shock was evaluated under two central bank scenarios. the first scenario, central bank only reacts to production and inflation gap and in The second scenario, central bank reacts to stock price index gap in addition to production and inflation gap. The results of the calibration of linear model suggest that in case of technology shock, monetary shocks, and government spending shock under both scenarios, fluctuations of intermediate agents, private investment, inflation, production, and money volume growth do not show significant differences. However, under the second scenario, in case of government investment shock and oil revenues shock,, there is less fluctuation in the discussed variables compared to the first scenario. but under the second scenario, in case of stock price index Shock, there is more fluctuation in the discussed variables compared to the first scenario. Therefore, the results of the impulse response function (IRF) of the variables suggest that the mild reaction of the central bank to deviations of total stock price index from it equilibrium leads to a reduction in economic volatility and an increase in in overall macroeconomic stability. Moreover, comparison of the torque of the variables present in the model and torque of real data of Iran economy indicates the relative success of the model in simulating the realities of Iran economy.

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Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2022
  • Volume: 

    7
  • Issue: 

    2
  • Pages: 

    131-155
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    95
  • Downloads: 

    34
Abstract: 

Objective: In recent years, the effect of financial markets and especially the stock market as one of the factors of financing investment plans and projects are important.The effects of prosperity and recession of these markets on the country's economy are also considered. In the implementation of monetary policy, in fact, the existence of asymmetric effects doubles the need to pay attention to the performance of monetary shocks and accuracy in formulating and implementing policies in any economy. And policymakers in their medium- and long-term planning not only pay attention to macroeconomic goals, including the level of real output and inflation, Asymmetry considers the effects of monetary shocks on real and nominal variables in the economy as endogenous. In other words, it is considered to be influenced by factors such as the size of positive and negative monetary shocks, various inflationary conditions, and the prevalence of recession or boom in the economy.Methods: Interest rates in the Iranian economy are constant over the years, we can not use the Taylor rule to estimate the effects of monetary policy. Therefore, we modeled the monetary policy process by using the McCallum rule of the monetary base as a representative of monetary policy. Then, by extracting monetary shocks, we interpret its effects on the economy. Finally, we used the Markov Dynamic Switching Regression (MSDR) model to estimate the effects of monetary policy shocks on stock prices. The MSDR model enables the rapid evolution of heterogeneous time series in different states. In addition, to determine the dynamic relationship between monetary policy shocks and stock prices, special attention is paid to time-varying parameters in the MSDR model.The application of monetary policy with the instrument of monetary base growth on the variables of output gap, inflation gap, exchange rate changes with quarterly data from 2005 to 2019 and using the  Maccallum Rule is investigated.Then the effect of monetary shocks on the stock price index is analyzed based on the Markov Switching Model.Results: By using monetary policy with monetary base tools, in the first period, the shock to the monetary base has a positive effect on the monetary base, from the second period to several periods, it has negative effects, and finally, over time, the effects of monetary shock on the positive monetary base and it is very minor.The output gap versus the monetary shock in the first period has a positive effect and the second and third periods have a reverse effect, then a positive and increasing effect, and over time the degree of impact of the output gap becomes little with the application of monetary policy. Inflation has negative and decreasing effects against changes in the monetary base in all periods, which will reach zero over time, and the effects of the monetary base on inflation over time will be very small. By implementing monetary policy with the basic monetary instrument, the exchange rate in the first periods has negative effects. Then it will have a small decreasing trend over time.Therefore, there are effects of monetary policy implementation in the early periods on the variables, and over time, the effects of floating the monetary base on other variables become minor and insignificant.Markov's test of the rotational model confirms that the Iranian stock market has followed a passive stock market relative to changes in the monetary base over the period under study. In the first and second regimes, changes in the output gap increase the stock price index. In both regimes, the output gap coefficients are significant and smaller than one.In regime one, increasing the inflation gap increases the stock price index and is statistically significant. In this regime, the reaction of the Iranian stock market to inflation is high compared to other variables, which indicates that in the recession period, the index against inflation, the index The stock price will also have a positive and increasing response, and shareholders will benefit from this price growth due to the recessionary conditions of the economy, and finally the growth of the stock price index. In regime two, the stock price index decreases as inflation increases. It can be said that if inflation expectations are combined with rumors of prosperity in a certain sector of the economy, shareholders may withdraw their capital from the stock market and invest in another field. Increasing the supply of the total stock price index decreases.The results explain that the dealing of monetary policy and monetary shocks in each time period does not have a consistent behavior and the same effect on the stock price index.The application of monetary policy in a powerful way does not affect the stock price index. The findings also indicate that after one or at most three seasons, a turnaround occurs in the state of Iran's economy. And the period between prosperity and recession and politics is constantly rotating between active and passive. Therefore, according to the results obtained in the Iranian economy, we do not see the stability and long-term sustainability of a prosperity or recession regime.Conclusion: According to the results obtained in the Iranian economy in the period under review, we do not see the stability and long-term durability of a prosperity or recession regime.

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Author(s): 

NONEJAD MASOUD | ZAMANI KORDSHOULI BEHZAD | HOSSEINZADEH YOSEF ABAD SEYED MOJTABA

Journal: 

FINANCIAL ECONOMICS

Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2012
  • Volume: 

    6
  • Issue: 

    20
  • Pages: 

    9-38
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    2017
  • Downloads: 

    0
Abstract: 

Monetary policy is one of the effected variable on stock price index in valid stocks of the world. Since the effects of these variables cause some results such as income distribution changes and welfare items in each society, so the exploration and evaluation of these effects are very important. In the recent study it has been tried to probe the effect of the above variable on nominal and actual Tehran stock exchange price index according to season data in 1369-1387.Data analysis in this study has been done according to Vector Auto Regressive model, Impulse Respone Function and Variance Decomposition. The results show that monetary policy has positive effect on nominal and actual index of stock.

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Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2015
  • Volume: 

    9
  • Issue: 

    2
  • Pages: 

    87-101
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    1271
  • Downloads: 

    0
Abstract: 

Iran is the eighth country in the world by producing 74 thousand and 577 tons of honey in 2013. It also ranks fourth in the number of hives in the world. In 2013 more than 74 thousand tons of honey is produced in the country valued at 1, 149 million dollars. There is a high potential for production of export one hundred percent pure honey in Iran so more than 2 billion dollars acquired by exporting honey and it’s accessories such as pollen, royal jelly and bee venom. Therefore it can be used as in our non-oil export baskets. In this article, index of comparative advantage in the export of honey in the country for 2009-2012 are calculated. For this purpose, the index of revealed comparative advantage (RCA), Location Queficient (LQ) and domestic resource cost (DRC) are computed. Result of study shows Ardabil and West Azerbaijan comparative higher advantages among country’s provinces in production of honey. According to the results, index of domestic resource price, Iran has comparative advantage in production of honey.

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Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2024
  • Volume: 

    34
  • Issue: 

    3
  • Pages: 

    19-34
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    23
  • Downloads: 

    2
Abstract: 

Objective: This study was aimed to evaluate the grain yield of barley and faba bean in different planting patterns of intercropping under the condition of humic acid application in a low input cropping system. Materials and Methods: The experiment was carried out as a two-factor factorial (3×5) baed on RCBD with three replications. The treatments were five planting patterns including two treatments of barley and faba bean sole croppings and three intercropping patterns (50% faba bean + 50% barley,80% faba bean + 40% barley and 40% faba bean and 80% barley) and three foliar applications of humic acid including control, the concentration of 3% and 6% humic acid. Grain yield and related traits were determined to evaluate grain yield and land equivalent ration and monetary advantage index were measured to investigate the intercropping advantage. Results: Based on the obtained results, the highest number of grain per pod and pods per plant was obtained in the sole cropping of beans, which was not significantly different from the intercropping pattern of 80% of beans and 40% of barley. The highest grain yield and biological yield of faba beans (2632 and 5929 kg ha-1 respectively) were obtained in sole cropping, followed by intercropping pattern of 80% of beans and 40% of barley. The lowest seed yield and biological yield of faba beans (1464 and 4269 kg ha-1, respectively) were obtained in the intercropping pattern with the lowest density of faba beans (40% of beans and 80% of barley). By reducing the density of faba beans from 100% (in sole cropping) to 40% (intercropping of 40% of faba beans and 80% of barley), the grain and biological yield of faba beans decreased by 44% and 28%, respectively. The highest grain and biological yields of barley were also obtained in the sole cropping treatment, which were 3250 and 7952 kg ha-1, respectively. With 3% and 6% humic acid foliar application, faba bean yield increased by 12% and 30%, and barley yield increased by 13% and 30%, respectively. The land equivalent ratio for all three intercropping patterns was obtained more than one. The monetary advantage index was also positive for all three mixed cropping patterns. Conclusion: Despite the lower yields of barley and beans in intercropping compared to sole cropping, intercropping was superior in terms of land utilization and monetary advantage because the land equivalent ratio for all three intercropping patterns was greater than one and the monetary advantage index was also positive for all three intercropping patterns. In total and based on the evaluation criteria, the best pattern was the intercropping of 80% of faba beans and 40% of barley (with a land equivalent ratio of 1. 33). However, the effect of higher densities of faba beans and barley (even densities with additive series) on grain yield and usefulness of intercropping needs further investigation.

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Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2016
  • Volume: 

    5
  • Issue: 

    19
  • Pages: 

    29-57
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    1274
  • Downloads: 

    0
Abstract: 

Monetary Policy is one of the important instruments of the economic demand management and is much important in policy making decisions. In this direction, determination the rule of monetary policy making and discretion of expansionary and contractionary monetary policies are also important for policy makers and economists. In this study, the monetary conditions index (MCI) over the period 1352-91 and financial conditions index (FCI) over the period 1377-91 calculated using the Principal Component Analysis for Iran's economy. According to the results, the monetary conditions index impact any 3 channel exchange rate, interest rate and credit channel. Also in the calculation of index financial conditions, in addition to the the above channel 3, also has its effect channel Finance. Credit channel has the greatest weight in both financial and monetary conditions index, while the interest rate channel of the lowest weight than the 3 other channels in both the index, implying that credit channel is more important than the other channels in determining the level of output in Iran.

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